Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the real-world event at stake is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with the market betting on whether it will reach 31°C. Historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows daily highs consistently averaging 33°C to 35°C, rarely dipping below 30°C, making a 31°C threshold highly probable under normal conditions [2][4]. WeatherSpark notes that July highs typically hover around 31°C (91°F), seldom falling below 29°C (85°F), which strongly contradicts the current crowd-implied 0% probability for a "YES" outcome [1].

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures, though such events are uncommon in mid-July. Recent reports from Xinhua News Agency highlight that Guangzhou experienced its longest summer since 1961, with average temperatures reaching 23.3°C in early July, suggesting a warming trend that further supports the likelihood of exceeding 31°C [5]. The divergence between the 0% prediction-market probability and the near-certain analyst consensus on hitting 31°C presents a clear cross-platform odds-comparison opportunity, especially when contrasted with sportsbook lines that implicitly treat this as a high-probability event [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.