Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport recorded its peak daily temperature on 10 July 2026, with the settlement determined by Wunderground’s official hourly maximum in degrees Celsius. The market currently assigns a 0% implied probability to any outcome below 35°C, reflecting a near-certainty that the heat will exceed this threshold. This pricing diverges sharply from generic sportsbook-style weather lines that often cap July extremes at 32–34°C, suggesting prediction-market traders are pricing in a more aggressive heatwave scenario than traditional analysts anticipate.

Historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows daily highs averaging 33°C, with peak temperatures frequently reaching 34–37°C [3][4]. Last year, on 10 July 2025, the station recorded a maximum of 35°C amid moderate rain showers [6]. More recently, Guangzhou broke a three-decade heat record with 235 summer days measured by temperature, indicating a sustained upward trend in extreme heat events [2]. The 0% probability for lower ranges aligns with this pattern, as temperatures below 35°C have become increasingly rare during peak summer.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun Airport Station and any official heatwave advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities, which often precede record-breaking days. PredictWind’s July 2026 historical records for Guangzhou Shi may offer early signals if wind patterns or humidity shift unexpectedly [9]. The market’s tight odds on 35°C+ outcomes suggest analysts are weighting recent heatwave data heavily, though a sudden rain event could still disrupt the trajectory before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.