Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to a YES result for any temperature above 35°C. This implies traders believe extreme heat is unlikely, yet historical data contradicts such certainty: the city’s highest ever recorded temperature was 39.1°C on exactly 1 July 2004, and July climatology typically features average highs near 32°C with frequent spikes to 34–35°C. While Polymarket’s frontrunner is 32°C at 79%, the divergence from sportsbook lines—which often price extreme heat events more conservatively—suggests a meaningful gap between prediction-market optimism and analyst consensus on thermal volatility.

Traders must monitor real-time weather bulletins from Wunderground and national climate updates, particularly given China’s record-breaking July temperatures in recent years, including the hottest month since 1961 reported in 2024. A sudden shift in monsoon patterns or urban heat accumulation could rapidly alter the probability landscape, especially as July remains one of Guangzhou’s hottest months with temperatures reaching 36°C. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, so any pre-noon temperature spike above 35°C would invalidate the current zero-YES implied probability. Recent Reuters reporting confirms China’s national temperature averages have eclipsed previous records, reinforcing the need to watch for anomalies that could trigger a sharp odds correction across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.