Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 1 August will be measured at Baiyun International Airport, and the market resolves to the temperature band containing that daily maximum. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is hard to reconcile with the city’s late-summer climate: August normals cluster around **33–34°C** for daily highs, with several historical summaries putting typical August highs near **33°C** and warm-day peaks well above that.[1][4][18][20]

Comparable August readings suggest that a sub-30°C outcome is unusual rather than impossible, but not the modal case. Historical climate tables for Guangzhou show 1 August averages around **33.5°C** and nearby early-August highs often in the **33–36°C** range, while long-run August extremes can reach the high 30s°C.[5][20] That backdrop makes sportsbook-style pricing, if any were available, likely to sit well above zero for the upper temperature bands; by contrast, the market price implies either an expectation of an unusually cool rain-affected day or a misread of the settlement source.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather at the airport station and any convective rain or thunderstorm timing, since Guangzhou’s August climate is hot, humid, and rain-prone.[10][13][17][20] At the time of writing there is already an AccuWeather-style forecast for Guangzhou showing daily highs around **89–93°F** for early August, which is broadly consistent with the climatology rather than the crowd’s 0% view.[9] Traders should watch the airport’s hourly evolution through midday, because the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, which can capture the day’s maximum before local afternoon heating is fully complete.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.