Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date historically prone to temperatures between 96°F and 100°F under typical upper-level high pressure. Current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders view the specific contract as highly unlikely to resolve in its favoured range, despite AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast indicating daily highs routinely reaching that bracket [5]. This divergence contrasts sharply with adjacent Polymarket contracts for mid-June, where consensus clusters tightly around 92–95°F for 22 June and 100% probability for 92–93°F on 25 June, reflecting a collective belief in near-normal to slightly above-average conditions [1][2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any anomalies in the 28 June high temperature record, particularly if persistent high pressure weakens or shifts [6]. The National Weather Service’s live timeseries for KDAL provides critical context on current dew points and humidity, which often dictate whether heat indices breach the 100°F threshold [7]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for this exact date, the broader seasonal pattern of persistent upper-level highs in North Texas remains the primary dependency; any deviation from this pattern, such as an incoming trough, would significantly alter the probability landscape for the 28 June peak [1]. The Robinhood climate market for this event currently mirrors the Polymarket sentiment, reinforcing the 0% implied probability for the specific "YES" outcome [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.