Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record a single highest temperature on 13 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that reading, with settlement occurring at midday on the day itself. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or treating all outcomes as equally likely, a pattern common in weather markets with low liquidity and high dispersion across possible outcomes.

Dallas's July climate is characterised by consistent heat; historical data from the National Weather Service shows that daily highs in mid-July typically range between 93°F and 97°F, with extremes occasionally reaching 100°F or above during heat waves. The city's record high for July stands at 103°F. The current zero probability reading reflects the early stage of this market's lifecycle rather than any consensus view. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket tend to show meaningful divergence when settlement approaches within 48 hours; at this distance from the event, sparse trading volume often leaves prices uninformative.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth office for any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings issued in the week prior to 13 July. Seasonal atmospheric patterns—particularly the position of the Bermuda High and any tropical moisture intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico—will determine whether conditions favour typical July heat or anomalous extremes. Current forecasting models will become reliable only five to seven days before the event, making early position-taking speculative.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.