Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded a maximum of 97°F at Love Field on 12 July 2026, a figure that sits comfortably within the typical mid-summer range for the city. Historical data shows the average warmest July day in Dallas reaches 96.1°F, with the all-time record for the month hitting 106°F [8][9]. Given that the actual high was 97°F, any market contract betting on temperatures significantly below this threshold would have resolved negatively, while the current 0% YES probability for the specific range in question reflects a clear divergence from the settled reality of the day’s heat.

Traders comparing Polymarket and Kalshi lines should note that sportsbook-style weather derivatives often lag behind real-time station data, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities before settlement. The primary catalyst for resolution is the official Wunderground daily report for KDAL, which locks in the 97°F peak recorded at 15:53 UTC [6]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather predicted highs between 96°F and 102°F for this period, aligning closely with the observed outcome and suggesting that analyst consensus was accurate despite the market’s initial zero probability on the lower range [2].

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, meaning the 97°F reading is now the definitive benchmark for all related contracts. Discrepancies between platforms often arise from differing interpretations of “daily high” versus “peak instantaneous” temperature, but Wunderground’s methodology for KDAL is explicit and unambiguous [1]. With the event already concluded, the 0% implied probability on the lower range is mathematically correct, as the actual temperature exceeded the threshold required for a YES resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.