Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field’s highest reading on 6 August will be pinned to Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* table, and the market is trading well below the heat suggested by local forecast commentary. Polymarket’s current pricing puts **100–101°F** at **66%**, with **98–99°F** next at **32%**, while the contract’s crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** on the headline outcome looks disconnected from the range that is actually favoured in the bin market. Weather Underground’s Dallas history page for the date is the relevant resolution source, and Robinhood’s similar Dallas temperature contract is explicitly based on the Weather Underground report for the Dallas Fort Worth Intl Airport station, reinforcing that traders are effectively handicapping a station-specific maximum rather than a citywide forecast.[1][3][7]

Historically, early-August Dallas highs often sit near or above the century mark, so a 100°F-plus reading is not unusual even if the final outcome depends on the station observation and not a broad metro average. The National Weather Service’s DFW climate materials show that 100°F days are a recurring feature of North Texas summers, and Dallas temperature-extremes records confirm repeated episodes of extreme heat at the airport station.[4][8] AccuWeather’s August outlook for Dallas also showed a forecast around the mid-90s for 6 August with surrounding days clustering in the mid-to-upper 90s, which helps explain why the market has a secondary band below 100°F despite the dominance of the triple-digit bin.[2]

Traders should watch the evolution of the station observation itself, not broader headlines: the decisive catalyst is the late-afternoon peak at Love Field and any subsequent Weather Underground revision before the first observation for the following day is published.[1] A recent CBS Dallas-Fort Worth forecast piece said hot weather was continuing across North Texas with triple-digit heat in the region, but that kind of regional guidance matters mainly insofar as it supports the chance of a final 100°F-plus station high rather than the exact bin that settles the contract.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.