Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

Chongqing is entering its peak hot season, with June 26 falling squarely within the 2.7-month window where daily highs consistently exceed 35°C (85°F) [1]. The city’s reputation as one of China’s hottest locales is backed by 149 recorded days above 40°C since 1951, with the absolute maximum reaching 43.2°C in August 2022 [3][8]. Given this historical intensity, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for any temperature range below a specific threshold appears starkly divergent from analyst consensus, which typically expects June highs near 31–32°C under subtropical ridge conditions [5]. This mismatch suggests sportsbook lines may be pricing in a moderate heatwave while prediction markets are betting on an extreme outlier, creating a notable arbitrage opportunity for cross-platform traders.

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s position over the Sichuan Basin, as its strength directly dictates whether Chongqing’s peak temperature climbs toward 32°C or surges higher [5]. Recent forecasts indicate the ridge is pushing back over the basin, a dependency that could trigger rapid temperature spikes if cloud cover diminishes [5]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for June 26, real-time data from Wunderground at the Jiangbei International Airport Station will be the sole resolution source, making minute-by-minute monitoring critical [market description]. The divergence between prediction-market odds and historical averages underscores the need to watch for sudden shifts in ridge intensity, which could invalidate the 0% implied probability if temperatures breach expected ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.