Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 27 July will be the afternoon peak recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, and the market settles on which Celsius range that maximum lands in. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES is far below what the climate backdrop would usually imply for late July in inland south-west China, where heat is normally persistent and daily highs are commonly in the low 30s Celsius. TravelChinaGuide describes Chongqing in July as “extremely hot” and “rainy”, with an average high of 33°C and humidity around 73%, while China Weather’s seven-day view shows a 36°C high forecast for 28 July and a 24°C low for 27 July.[2][1]

For context, a 0% implied probability is difficult to reconcile with the seasonal baseline unless the contract is narrowly bracketed around an unusually high threshold. In similar summer weather markets, prediction-market prices usually track local climatology more closely than sportsbook-style odds, because the main driver is the day’s realised maximum rather than a binary event with many external dependencies. Here, analyst-style consensus from the weather sources points to a hot, humid pattern rather than an anomalously cool one, which means the key question is not whether Chongqing will be warm, but how high the airport station’s actual maximum will reach relative to the contract’s range bands.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, the timing of afternoon convection, and any rain or thunderstorm development that could cap the peak temperature before settlement. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history for the airport station, so traders should watch whether nearby forecast models shift the expected high by even 1–2°C, as that can move a reading across a band boundary. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the market is effectively driven by the local afternoon heating window and any last-minute cloud cover or precipitation affecting the airport station specifically.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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