Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the critical real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, a metric that will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently implies a 0% probability for any temperature above 26°C. This stark divergence between the zero-implied probability and the historical reality of Chongqing’s July heat creates a significant arbitrage opportunity when compared to Polymarket lines, where traders assign a 27% probability to 26°C and 26% to 27°C, suggesting a market consensus that regional factors will moderate the typical scorching heat.

Historical data frames this current probability as highly questionable, given that Chongqing’s daytime temperatures in July generally range from 32°C to 37°C, with extreme cases approaching 40°C, while the city’s all-time record stands at 44.5°C[1][7]. Even in recent years, daily peaks have rarely exceeded 39°C in July, yet this threshold is already considered very hot by global standards, making the current 0% market implied probability for higher temperatures a dangerous misreading of the city’s climatic baseline[5]. The fact that July holds the highest number of rain days on average, with 20.2 days of precipitation, introduces volatility, but does not typically suppress temperatures to the 26°C level suggested by the zero-implied crowd[9].

Traders must monitor the immediate weather forecast for the Chongqing region, specifically looking for the development of thunderstorms or heavy cloud cover that could temporarily lower daytime highs, as well as any official announcements regarding heatwave management protocols. Recent reporting from Reuters highlights that residents are already seeking shelter as heatwaves hit China’s southwest, indicating that the atmospheric pressure systems driving these temperatures are active and persistent[5]. Furthermore, the record-breaking heat experienced across China in July 2025, which saw the highest average temperature since 1961, suggests a potential trend of intensifying summer heat that could push the 2 July maximum well beyond the current market expectations[6]. The settlement window ending on 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z requires precise attention to the Wunderground data feed for the Jiangbei station to confirm the final resolution[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.