Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with traders betting on the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, while the frontrunner for the actual reading is 34°C at 21% and 33°C at 20% [1]. This divergence highlights a stark contrast between the binary contract’s zero confidence and the distribution market’s clear lean toward mid-30s Celsius, a pattern often seen when resolution ranges are narrowly defined against broad seasonal expectations.

Historically, Chongqing’s July highs regularly exceed 34°C, with the city frequently hitting 38°C or higher during heatwaves, making a 0% probability for a specific range statistically anomalous unless that range excludes typical peaks. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2023 show temperatures consistently in the 35–40°C band, framing the current odds as either a mispriced outlier or a signal that the specific range in question is implausibly low for the season.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Jiangbei station, as the settlement relies exclusively on its daily maximum [1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the lack of divergence between sportsbook lines (which typically do not cover hyper-local weather) and prediction-market odds suggests this is a niche contract where analyst consensus is thin, leaving the 21% probability for 34°C as the primary anchor for cross-platform comparison.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.