Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market resolves using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings from headline temperature reports. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that calendar day.

Chongqing's August climate presents a narrow historical band. The city's mean August high hovers around 32–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 40°C or falling below 28°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature range as highly unlikely or uncertainty about which range will verify. This contrasts with typical weather-market behaviour, where August temperatures in subtropical Chinese cities generate distributed probabilities across multiple bins rather than concentrated conviction in a single outcome.

The critical dependency is Weather Underground's station data quality and reporting schedule. Chongqing experiences monsoon influence through August, with occasional thunderstorms that can suppress afternoon highs. Any significant weather system—tropical cyclone remnants or upper-level troughs—would shift temperature profiles notably. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and regional weather alerts in the week preceding 20 August, as these typically precede observable shifts in airport station readings. The absence of current market activity suggests limited trader engagement with this specific resolution window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.