Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 11 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders currently assess no meaningful likelihood of the temperature reaching the upper threshold specified by this contract's range brackets.

Chongqing's August climate presents consistent heat patterns. Historical data from the airport station shows daily highs typically between 32–36°C during mid-August, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 38°C during heat waves. The 2022 summer saw Chongqing experience sustained temperatures above 40°C across multiple weeks, establishing precedent for elevated readings during this period. Current probability positioning appears to reflect either a narrow resolution range or trader consensus that typical August conditions will prevail rather than anomalous heat.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature patterns. Pacific typhoon activity during late summer can influence Chongqing's weather systems, potentially driving either cooling or intensified heat depending on storm positioning. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections has resolved previous disputes; traders should verify the specific station's reporting methodology before settlement approaches. Cross-platform comparison shows prediction markets pricing this considerably lower than any available sportsbook lines, though traditional weather derivatives markets remain illiquid for this specific location and date combination.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.