Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate is defined by intense heat and high humidity, with typical daily highs reaching 31°C and lows around 23°C, often described as boisterous and oppressive due to 75% relative humidity [1]. The city experiences a 50% chance of rain on any given July day, with moderate precipitation averaging 17.0 mm, which can temporarily suppress peak temperatures [1]. Despite this, clear or partly cloudy skies occur for roughly 8.7 hours daily, allowing sufficient solar exposure to drive temperatures upward during the hottest parts of the day [1].

Historically, July 20 in Chengdu has frequently recorded temperatures exceeding 30°C, making a 0% implied probability for any heat threshold above 30°C on prediction markets like Polymarket a stark divergence from seasonal norms [1]. This contrasts with sportsbook-style weather lines on Kalshi, where similar contracts often carry 60–80% probability for highs above 30°C in mid-July, suggesting the current market may be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archives for the ZUUU station, as resolution depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport [1].

Key catalysts include the timing of the next monsoon surge and any official heat advisories from local meteorological authorities, which could signal a spike in temperatures ahead of the settlement window. While no specific recent news announcement has been issued for July 20, 2026, traders should watch for updates from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding forecasted heatwaves, as these often precede record-breaking days in the region. The settlement deadline of 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z means any temperature spike before noon UTC will determine the outcome, making real-time monitoring critical.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.