Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the market betting on whether the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will fall into a specific Celsius range. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders overwhelmingly expect the temperature to land outside the offered bracket, likely in a higher range typical for mid-July in this region.

Historically, Chengdu experiences extreme heat in July, with recorded highs often exceeding 35°C at Shuangliu Airport. In 2022 and 2023, daily maximums reached 37–39°C during similar periods, indicating that a 0% probability on a lower range aligns with past climate patterns. This divergence between the zero implied probability and historical norms mirrors how sportsbooks often price extreme weather events conservatively, while prediction markets reflect sharper consensus on likely outcomes.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration. A recent report from the South China Morning Post highlighted intensifying heatwaves across western China due to a persistent high-pressure system, which could push temperatures beyond 38°C. No official announcements are expected before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, making live station data the primary catalyst for any late-stage probability movement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.