Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is currently experiencing its peak summer heat, with July routinely producing fuggy conditions where temperatures can climb to 38°C. The prediction market for the highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the reading to fall outside the specific range offered. This zero-percentage stance contrasts sharply with historical data, where mid-July often sees afternoon highs reaching 33°C and occasional spikes up to 39.4°C, with recent records showing 37°C hit on 6 July 2026 in the same region[10].

Historical patterns indicate that the middle ten days of July and August are typically the hottest period in Chengdu, with average highs between 28°C and 30°C[2]. While sustained heat like eastern China is rare, extremes have previously reached 38.6°C in August 2022, and July 2024 marked China’s hottest month on record since 1961[4][9]. The current 0% probability appears to ignore these precedents, creating a notable divergence from the analyst consensus that mid-July temperatures in this basin frequently breach 35°C. Traders comparing Polymarket lines against Kalshi should note this statistical outlier, as the crowd-implied odds do not align with the climatic reality of the region during this window.

Key catalysts for this contract include real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source for the Shuangliu Airport station[8]. Traders must monitor hourly temperature feeds for 13 July, as cloud cover and humidity levels in Chengdu’s basin can rapidly alter peak readings. Recent weather reports for 13 July show passing clouds with temperatures around 82°F (28°C), but the potential for sudden spikes remains high given the month’s volatility[5]. Any announcement of a regional heatwave or shifts in the monsoon pattern would serve as immediate triggers for price movement, potentially correcting the current mispricing against the historical baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.