Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the market betting on whether the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station records a temperature within a specific Celsius range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are virtually certain the day’s maximum will fall outside the offered bracket, despite July being the region’s hottest month. Historical data confirms July averages reach 32°C (90°F), with occasional spikes up to 38°C (100°F), making extreme heat a reliable seasonal feature rather than an anomaly [2][4].

Comparable cases from recent years show Chengdu routinely exceeding 35°C in mid-July, with the 25th of the month historically hitting the year’s peak average of 31°C [9]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s temperature range and these established climatic norms, as sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts typically align with such high-temperature expectations. Analyst consensus on comparable contracts usually favours “YES” outcomes when ranges include 30–35°C, highlighting a notable divergence from this market’s pricing.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the day’s recorded maximum at ZUUU [10]. No formal announcements or schedules are pending, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation—common in Chengdu’s fuggy July climate—could alter the final reading [4]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the window captures the full diurnal cycle, ensuring the recorded peak reflects the day’s true thermal maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.