Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution mechanism specifies the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as the authoritative source, with explicit precedence over the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between reporting methods. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the same date.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent baseline for calibration. Historical data from the past decade shows August highs at Shuangliu typically range between 28–35°C, with extreme readings above 37°C occurring in roughly 15–20% of years during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold set well above typical August maxima, or uncertainty about which range brackets the eventual reading. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show similar probability distributions for Chinese summer temperatures, though divergence occasionally emerges when one platform's liquidity concentrates around particular threshold bands.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for sustained high-pressure systems over central China. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift baseline temperatures by 2–4°C. The specific range boundaries encoded in this market's settlement options will determine whether typical August conditions resolve as YES or NO—a critical detail to verify before positioning, as the current 0% reflects the market's assessment that the defined threshold sits above expected outcomes for that date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.