Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s high temperature on 2 August will be set by the maximum reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the market is really a bet on whether the day finishes in a typical early-August range or prints an unusual spike. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES looks hard to square with the climate backdrop: August in Chengdu is generally hot and humid, with average highs clustered around 30–31°C and frequent rain, but comparable sources still show plausible daily highs in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, which keeps a wide part of the distribution live for the settlement window.[2][4][5][9][17]

Historically, August in Chengdu is one of the warmest and wettest periods of the year, with average highs around 30°C, although individual days can run materially hotter, with some forecasts and climate summaries showing peaks near 33–35°C.[4][5][8][14][17] That makes a 0% YES quote look like an outlier versus the underlying weather profile, unless the contract’s YES band is positioned well above the expected daytime maximum. Cross-platform pricing would normally be checked against sportsbook-style temperature lines and analyst-style weather outlooks, but the available public sources here are more aligned on a warm, rainy day than on any dramatic cooling or heat extreme.[3][6][11][12]

Traders should watch the short-range forecast updates through the morning and early afternoon in Chengdu, because convective rain, cloud cover and humidity can suppress the high by several degrees even on a seasonably hot day.[3][6][11][12] The key dependency is the airport station’s official Wunderground history entry, not citywide averages, so local timing of showers near Chengdu Shuangliu can matter more than regional summaries.[2][12] No material policy or schedule catalyst is evident; this is a pure weather-resolution contract, with the main driver being how the day’s actual maximum evolves as the sun angle and rainfall compete through the local afternoon.[2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.