Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across platforms, suggesting traders are either awaiting baseline temperature data or treating this as a calibration contract pending the settlement window.

Chengdu experiences extreme summer heat, with August typically the hottest month. Historical August highs at Shuangliu average 29–32°C, though the city has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band the market offers rather than genuine doubt that some measurable high will occur on that date. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi show minimal divergence when resolution sources are clearly specified, suggesting the current odds reflect incomplete information rather than genuine disagreement among traders.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any significant heat wave warnings or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting the Sichuan basin would shift expectations. The specification requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary figures is material—discrepancies between the two sources occasionally occur, making source verification critical before settlement. Current sportsbook equivalents lack weather derivatives for this location, leaving prediction markets as the primary pricing mechanism.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.