Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, yet Polymarket data shows 33°C as the frontrunner at 39%, followed by 34°C at 27%, indicating a stark divergence between the binary implied probability and the granular temperature distribution.

Historical July weather in Beijing is typically hot and wet, with the month averaging around 185 mm of rainfall, one of the wettest periods in the city’s annual cycle [2]. Comparable cases from recent years show peak temperatures in mid-July often landing between 32°C and 36°C, making the 0% YES probability appear inconsistent with the spread of outcomes on the temperature-range market, where 33°C and 34°C dominate the odds [1].

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the official resolution source, as real-time temperature readings will determine settlement [1]. No scheduled announcements or policy dependencies affect this weather contract, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation could alter the peak temperature. The lack of alignment between the binary market’s 0% YES and the range market’s 39% for 33°C suggests a potential mispricing worth cross-examining against Kalshi’s lines if available.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.