Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s summer heat is already active as traders assess the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds for 11 July 2026 at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market sees no chance of the event occurring, yet Polymarket data shows a 25% implied probability for 30°C and 24% for 29°C, indicating a meaningful divergence between the binary “YES” framing and the granular temperature-range contracts. This discrepancy highlights how cross-platform odds can misalign when one venue uses a binary outcome while another breaks the same event into discrete ranges.

Historical July highs in Beijing frequently land between 30°C and 36°C, with 32°C and 33°C common outcomes according to the Beijing Meteorological Bureau[10]. In 2023, the month’s peak reached 40°C, and July 2024 was China’s hottest month in recent history, averaging 23.21°C nationally[2][9]. These records frame the 0% YES probability as potentially mispriced if the binary contract implicitly excludes the 30°C+ range that dominates historical and current market expectations.

Traders should monitor daily high-temperature releases from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s real-time station data for ZBAA, the designated resolution source[1]. Any sudden heatwave announcements or shifts in regional humidity forecasts could rapidly alter implied probabilities, especially as the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 11 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.