Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns whether Beijing's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will exceed a specific threshold, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Beijing Capital International Airport Station. The 2% crowd-implied probability suggests traders assess an extreme heat event as unlikely for that date.

Beijing's August temperatures historically cluster between 25–32°C, with daily highs rarely breaching 35°C except during exceptional heatwaves. The city experienced a peak of 41.9°C in July 2010 during an anomalous event, but August typically sees slightly cooler conditions as monsoon patterns intensify. August 15 specifically falls within the latter half of summer when thermal stress begins moderating; records from the past two decades show single-digit probability of temperatures exceeding 38°C on this date. The current 2% probability aligns with historical tail-risk frequencies for extreme August heat in the capital.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for sustained high-pressure systems or drought conditions across northern China. La Niña or El Niño phase transitions announced by late 2025 could shift seasonal precipitation patterns and affect summer heat distribution. Real-time tracking of the East Asian summer monsoon's strength in mid-August will prove critical; weakened monsoon circulation historically correlates with Beijing heat extremes. Weather Underground's station data collection methodology and any infrastructure changes at Capital International Airport should be verified before settlement, given the market's explicit reliance on Daily Observations rather than summary figures.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.