Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution tied to whichever temperature band contains the recorded peak. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing this contract as effectively certain to resolve outside a specific range, though the market description does not specify which temperature threshold defines the YES outcome.

August temperatures in Beijing typically peak between 26–34°C, with historical data from the past decade showing 11 August averages around 28–30°C. The 0% probability across prediction markets indicates either an extremely high or extremely low threshold has been set for YES resolution, creating a structural mismatch between typical seasonal conditions and market pricing. Cross-platform comparison shows no meaningful divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi lines, as both reflect the same consensus rejection of YES outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Beijing's urban heat patterns. Heatwave alerts—common in northern China during mid-August—would shift probability if they indicate anomalous warming. The resolution dependency on Weather Underground's specific Daily Observations table rather than official CMA data introduces a minor technical risk; historical discrepancies between sources are rare but documented. Real-time temperature data from Beijing airport becomes actionable only in the final 48 hours before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.