Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daily temperature at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara on 2 July 2026, with current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sitting at 0% despite short-range forecasts suggesting a high-pressure system and clear skies will drive temperatures toward 33–34 °C[1]. Historical averages for Ankara in July typically cap daytime maximums at 29 °C, with long-term data indicating 12 hours of daily sunshine and low humidity[3]. However, recent 2026-specific forecasts show daily highs ranging from 81° to 94° (27–34 °C), with the average high for the month reaching 89° (32 °C)[5], creating a notable divergence between traditional climatology and current trader sentiment clustering around 33–34 °C[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Esenboğa station, as the resolution source relies on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day[1]. A critical catalyst is the official announcement from the Turkish Meteorology General Directorate (MGM), which reported on 2 July 2026 that extreme temperatures in Ankara were peaking, potentially validating the market’s tight clustering around 34 °C[9]. The 2026 Ankara NATO summit, scheduled for 7–8 July, may also influence local weather monitoring intensity, though the immediate settlement depends solely on the 2 July data point[10]. The current frontrunner outcome of 34 °C at 99% implied probability reflects a strong consensus that this day will exceed the long-term average of 29 °C[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.