Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is set to record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the outcome determining which Celsius range resolves the prediction market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, relying on Wunderground’s official daily maximum for the station.

Historical July highs at Schiphol typically cluster between 22°C and 27°C, with 25°C appearing most frequently in recent decades. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome is misleading if interpreted as a binary event; instead, the market is structured as a range bet, where 25°C is the frontrunner at 54%, followed by 26°C at 23% [1]. This divergence highlights a key difference from sportsbook-style binary lines: prediction markets here express granular probability across multiple outcomes, whereas external platforms may simplify the event into a single yes/no proposition, obscuring the true distribution of expectations.

Traders should monitor the European Heatwave Watch and daily forecasts from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), which issue real-time updates on temperature anomalies ahead of mid-July. A recent KNMI bulletin noted a high-pressure system building over the Netherlands, potentially pushing temperatures toward 26–27°C if cloud cover remains low [2]. Any sudden shift in wind direction from the Atlantic could suppress the peak, making these forecasts the primary catalyst for price movement before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.