Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station will determine which temperature range this market resolves to, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity and engagement on this contract. Cross-platform comparison reveals no meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds, as traditional weather betting remains largely absent from major sportsbooks; the market's zero probability reflects either a technical artefact or genuine consensus that the implied range falls outside plausible outcomes for Amsterdam in mid-August.

Historical August temperatures in Amsterdam typically range between 17°C and 24°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. The 2003 European heat wave saw Amsterdam reach 30.3°C in August, whilst more recent years have produced peaks between 25°C and 27°C. These precedents suggest mid-range outcomes remain most probable, though the specific temperature brackets offered in this market may explain the zero probability if they exclude historically common values.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and high-pressure ridges that typically influence Dutch summer temperatures. The ECMWF and GFS models become reliable roughly two weeks before the settlement date. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early autumn cooling or a late-summer heat dome—would shift probabilities materially, though such shifts remain speculative until forecast confidence improves closer to the event window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.