Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are forecast to be similar to 2025, with the most probable outcome being a rank of fourth hottest year since 1850, trailing 2023 and 2024 due to ongoing La Niña cooling patterns[2]. This historical framing challenges the current 34% YES implied probability that 2026 will rank among the top three hottest years; Berkeley Earth assigns only a 43% combined chance to first, second, or third place, with 51% probability specifically for fourth place[2]. While the World Meteorological Organisation notes an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record, it does not confirm 2026 itself will achieve this feat[1].

Traders should monitor the transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions, as a shift could elevate 2026’s rank beyond the consensus fourth-place projection[2]. Key dependencies include the release of full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, which typically becomes available in early 2027, though the market settles immediately once specified data is published regardless of later revisions[2]. Recent monthly reports show May 2026 was the second-highest global surface temperature in the 177-year record, suggesting potential volatility if cooling patterns weaken[9]. Sportsbook lines on extreme heat events often diverge from prediction-market probabilities by focusing on regional anomalies rather than global annual averages, creating a measurable gap between short-term weather odds and long-term climate rankings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.