Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump is expected to remain in office as President of the United States through 30 June 2026, with no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or resignation signals in Congress or the executive branch. The Polymarket crowd-implied probability for his removal by that date is 0% for “Yes”, reflecting a 99.5% consensus that he will stay in power[1]. This stands in stark contrast to Kalshi’s estimate of nearly 28.7% for impeachment and removal over his second term, a figure that has risen sharply from 22.1% in April[3]. Sportsbooks and other prediction markets show similar divergence: while Polymarket assigns near-zero odds to removal by 30 June, the broader “Trump out before 2027” market on Polymarket implies a 10% chance[4], and a July 31 variant on Lines.com shows 1.3%[5].

Historically, presidential removals have been rare and require extraordinary constitutional conditions. The 25th Amendment’s Section 4 allows removal only if the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet declare the President unfit, followed by a two-thirds Congressional vote[6]. No such process has ever been completed successfully. Comparable cases, such as Nixon’s resignation under political pressure or the failed impeachment attempts against Clinton and Trump, underscore that removal demands overwhelming bipartisan consensus—currently absent given Republican control of both House and Senate[7]. Traders should monitor scheduled congressional votes, Cabinet statements, and any sudden legal developments, though no credible news source has reported imminent removal signals as of 29 June 2026. The twelve-day window leaves insufficient time for any constitutional removal process to conclude[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.