Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Candidate U | 50% |
| Candidate V | 50% |
| Candidate W | 50% |
| Candidate X | 50% |
| Candidate Y | 50% |
| Candidate Z | 50% |
| Candidate AA | 50% |
| Candidate AB | 50% |
| Candidate AC | 50% |
| Candidate AD | 50% |
| Candidate AE | 50% |
| Candidate AF | 50% |
| Candidate AG | 50% |
| Candidate AH | 50% |
| Candidate AI | 50% |
| Candidate AJ | 50% |
| Candidate AK | 50% |
| Candidate AL | 50% |
| Candidate AM | 50% |
| Candidate AN | 50% |
| Candidate AO | 50% |
| Candidate AP | 50% |
| Candidate AQ | 50% |
| Candidate AR | 50% |
| Candidate AS | 50% |
| Candidate AT | 50% |
| Candidate AU | 50% |
| Candidate AV | 50% |
| Candidate AW | 50% |
| Candidate AX | 50% |
| Candidate AY | 50% |
| Candidate AZ | 50% |
| Candidate BA | 50% |
| Candidate BB | 50% |
| Candidate BC | 50% |
| Candidate BD | 50% |
| Candidate BE | 50% |
| Candidate BF | 50% |
| Candidate BG | 50% |
| Candidate BH | 50% |
| Candidate BI | 50% |
| Candidate BJ | 50% |
| Candidate BK | 50% |
| Candidate BL | 50% |
| Candidate BM | 50% |
| Candidate BN | 50% |
| Candidate BO | 50% |
| Candidate BP | 50% |
| Candidate BQ | 50% |
| Candidate BR | 50% |
| Candidate BS | 50% |
| Candidate BT | 50% |
| Candidate BU | 50% |
| Candidate BV | 50% |
| Candidate BW | 50% |
| Candidate BX | 50% |
| Candidate BY | 50% |
| Candidate BZ | 50% |
| Candidate CA | 50% |
| Candidate CB | 50% |
| Candidate CC | 50% |
| Candidate CD | 50% |
| Candidate CE | 50% |
| Candidate CF | 50% |
| Candidate CG | 50% |
| Candidate CH | 50% |
| Candidate CI | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Scott Jennings | 16% |
| Tricia McLaughlin | 15% |
| Alina Habba | 11% |
| Kaelan Dorr | 10% |
| Spencer Pratt | 10% |
| Anna Kelly | 9% |
| Monica Crowley | 8% |
| Kush Desai | 5% |
| Taylor Rogers | 5% |
| Harrison Fields | 5% |
| Kayleigh McEnany | 5% |
| Natalie Harp | 5% |
| Laura Loomer | 5% |
| Lauren Bis | 4% |
| Hogan Gidley | 4% |
| Lara Trump | 4% |
| Katie Pavlich | 3% |
| Ari Fleischer | 3% |
| Katie Miller | 3% |
| Beni Rae Harmony | 3% |
| Elizabeth Pipko | 3% |
| Karoline Leavitt | 3% |
| Margo Martin | 2% |
| Liz Huston | 2% |
| Kari Lake | 2% |
| Rachel Campos-Duffy | 2% |
| Maria Bartiromo | 2% |
| Pat Adams | 1% |
| Matthew Boyle | 1% |
| Steven Cheung | 1% |
| Jake Paul | 1% |
Market context
Next Press Secretary? — current market-implied probability: 50%. This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM…
Methodology
This page reviews Next Press Secretary? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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