Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, china open, qualification: ksenia zaytseva vs storm hunter stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Ksenia Zaytseva and Storm Hunter in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This m…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →