Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Game Spread +/-4.5 | 64% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 63% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 21.5 | 41% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 Winner | 24% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 Winner | 22% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 21% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina | 16% |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 7% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 65% probability to us open wta: jessica bouzas maneiro vs elena rybakina. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Elena Rybakina in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jes…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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