Granby: Tyler Zink vs Alexis Galarneau

Platform comparison

Market context

Tyler Zink faces Alexis Galarneau in the Granby Challenger, a match originally set for 15 July 2026 at 17:00 local time, with the outcome determining who advances in the tournament. The prediction market currently implies a 0% probability that Zink wins, a stark divergence from typical sportsbook lines where Zink often holds a slight edge as a lower-ranked but consistent challenger player.

Historically, markets assigning near-zero probability to a challenger advancing have rarely held when the match was actually played, as seen in the 2024 Granby quarter-final where a 2% implied-probability upset occurred when the higher-ranked player withdrew mid-match due to injury. In such cases, the resolution often shifts to a 50-50 split if the match is not completed, which aligns with the current settlement rules for delays beyond seven days or cancellations.

Traders should monitor the ATP’s official schedule updates and any injury reports from Granby, as the match’s status hinges on whether it is played within the seven-day window. A recent Tennis365 report notes the match was listed but without a confirmed start time, suggesting possible scheduling uncertainty that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if no winner is determined promptly [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Granby: Tyler Zink vs Alexis Galarneau across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.