Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar

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Market context

The underlying event is the ATP Challenger tennis match in Piracicaba between Juan Bautista Torres and Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo, which concluded on 25 June 2026 with Torres winning 6-3, 6-4[2]. This result has already settled the outcome, making the current 100% YES implied probability on the prediction market for "Torres advances" a factual certainty rather than a speculative forecast. The market description incorrectly lists the match as originally scheduled for June 25 at 2:00PM ET, but the ATP Tour confirms the match took place and finished on that date with a decisive winner[2].

Historically, prediction markets that retain open trading after a match result is known often reflect a lag in settlement rather than genuine uncertainty, similar to cases where sportsbooks delay closing lines post-event due to technical dependencies[6]. In comparable tennis contracts, once a match result is officialised on the ATP Tour, the implied probability for the winner converges instantly to 100%, with no meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and analyst consensus[2][3]. The current 100% probability aligns perfectly with the official result, indicating no arbitrage opportunity exists between platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi for this settled contract.

Traders should monitor the official settlement timestamp on the prediction platform to confirm the market closes, as the settlement window ends 2026-07-02 but the event is already complete[2]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies are relevant since the match has finished, and the only catalyst is the administrative confirmation of the result on the platform. Recent ATP Tour data confirms the match outcome, removing any need for speculative analysis on player form or future schedules[2][3]. The market is effectively a record of a past event, not a forward-looking bet.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.