US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Open qualifying match between Dalibor Svrcina and Felipe Meligeni Alves is the reference event, with the listed crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% for Svrcina and the market only falling back to 50-50 if the contest is not completed or no winner is formally established by 7 September. That makes the contract unusually binary for a first-round qualifying fixture, where operational risk matters as much as pre-match strength.

The pricing picture is not uniform. Kalshi’s live screen showed Svrcina at about 76% and Meligeni Alves at 24% on 24 August, while Tennis Tonic’s preview had Svrcina favoured at 1.47 against 2.57 for Meligeni Alves, implying a much narrower edge than the contract price suggests. That gap matters because prediction markets can overstate certainty when one side is effectively crowded out, especially in lower-profile Grand Slam qualifying where liquidity is thinner and traders often anchor to one-sided priors rather than match-level data.

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually played, whether it is completed on schedule, and whether the tournament’s qualifying programme keeps moving on the expected 24–27 August timetable. The US Open’s official schedule shows men’s and women’s singles qualifying beginning on 24 August, with each round dependent on court availability and daily order of play, while broadcast listings indicate live coverage across the qualifying window. Any rain delay, withdrawal, walkover, or rescheduling would be more relevant to this contract than a routine in-play scoreline if the market remains unresolved near its settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.