Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: andres martin vs moez echargui. This market refers to the tennis match between Andres Martin and Moez Echargui in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page reviews Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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