Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill

Platform comparison

Market context

Rafael Jodar, the 23rd seed, faces British wild card Felix Gill in the first round of Wimbledon 2026, a match scheduled for Monday, 29 June with the court and exact time still undefined. The prediction market currently implies a 100% probability that Jodar advances, a stance that starkly diverges from sportsbook odds where Gill retains a non-trivial chance, and from Robinhood’s Set 3 contract, which prices Gill at 74¢ versus Jodar at 23¢. This 100% implied probability mirrors historical cases where a top-seeded player with superior grass experience faces a debutant with minimal wins on the surface; in 2023, a similar 22nd seed beat a British wild card with only four grass wins in straight sets, validating the market’s confidence in the seed’s advantage.

Traders must monitor the official court assignment and start time, as delays could trigger the market’s 50-50 resolution clause if the match exceeds seven days without a winner. The primary catalyst is Jodar’s performance on his Wimbledon debut, with live coverage available via Bet365 streaming and Movistar Plus+ in Spain, where the match is expected on channel 7 or #Vamos. Recent reporting from Puntodebreak confirms the match is set for 29 June, but the lack of defined timing introduces dependency on weather conditions and scheduling adjustments, which could alter the competitive dynamic if Gill gains extra preparation time. Analyst consensus, reflected in the 23rd seed’s ranking and Gill’s world No. 220 status with only five grass wins in 18 matches, supports the market’s 100% view, though the Robinhood pricing suggests a meaningful divergence in cross-platform odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.