Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx

Platform comparison

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet’s meeting with Alexander Blockx at the Estoril Open is priced more conservatively on the market than in the match previews, with the contract at **37% YES** for Jacquet while published tennis models and bookmakers have leaned the other way. The Stats Insider model puts Blockx at **61%** to win, and TAB’s listed head-to-head odds of **Jacquet 2.75** versus **Blockx 1.44** imply Blockx as the clearer favourite.[5] TheStatsZone also describes Blockx as a **heavy favourite**, while Last Word on Sports picked **Blockx in three**, which fits the broader view that Jacquet would need an upset rather than a routine hold of seedings or ranking expectations.[3][1]

That gap matters because this market is not a straight bet on raw talent; it resolves on advancement, and tennis markets can turn on timing, retirements and whether the scheduled match is actually completed. 365Scores already lists the contest as having been played, with a final scoreline recorded, which should reduce uncertainty around the usual postponement and cancellation paths that can distort prices before settlement.[2] The main catalysts for traders are any official ATP draw or order-of-play changes, late injury or withdrawal news, and confirmation that the result has been ratified in the tournament feed; absent those, the spread between the prediction market and sportsbook-implied probabilities looks like a straightforward disagreement over Jacquet’s upset chance rather than a structural issue with the contract itself.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.