Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse

Platform comparison

Market context

Kilian Feldbausch’s Generali Open meeting with Ignacio Buse has already been priced by the market as effectively dead on arrival, with the contract sitting at **0% YES** even though outside tennis previews had treated Buse as the clear favourite pre-match. That contrasts sharply with Tennis Tonic’s pre-event read, which backed **Ignacio Buse** and quoted early moneyline-style prices around **1.46** for Buse and **2.7** for Feldbausch, implying a sizeable favourite rather than a coin flip.[5]

For context, the cleanest comparable is not a long-shot upset but a live ATP clay match where price sensitivity is driven by draw status, scoreline and whether a player has already advanced. Sportschau’s live results page for the same fixture shows Feldbausch versus Buse in the Generali Open draw, while RIA’s event page records the match as completed with Buse winning **2-1** after dropping the first set **2:6, 6:2, 6:2**.[1][2] In prediction markets, that sort of outcome typically pushes a binary contract to the winner unless the settlement language forces a fallback because the match was never played or was abandoned before completion.

Traders should watch the ATP draw feed, official order-of-play updates and any late retirements or walkovers, because the settlement window only stays open until **2026-07-29T10:30:00Z**. RPP’s match page said the contest was scheduled for around **5:10 a.m. in Peru** and carried a live broadcast listing, which is the kind of scheduling detail that matters if a market is awaiting confirmation of whether the match actually began, finished, or was superseded by a withdrawal.[3] If there is any discrepancy between sportsbook pricing, the exchange contract and live tour reporting, the key question is whether an official winner was recorded before the seven-day cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.