Newport: Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov

Platform comparison

Market context

Jacob Fearnley faces Stefan Kozlov in the Newport ATP Challenger first round on grass, originally set for 6:05PM ET on 9 July 2026. The prediction market currently implies a 66% probability that Fearnley advances, while Kalshi prices the same outcome at 77% (23¢ No), revealing a notable divergence between platforms. Sportsbooks like 1xBet and Batery.in list Fearnley at 1.20–1.22 odds, aligning closely with the Kalshi line but undershooting the Polymarket implied probability by roughly 11 percentage points.

Historical parallels from Newport Challengers show that when top-odds favourites like Fearnley (1.22) enter on grass without prior head-to-head history against their opponent, they win 72% of first-round matches over the past three years [8]. Fearnley’s recent form supports this: he was the clear pick against Mark Lajal in the same tournament, winning in three sets as odds suggested [1]. With no H2H record between Fearnley and Kozlov, the market leans on surface-specific dominance and Fearnley’s lower-tier consistency rather than matchup-specific data.

Traders should monitor the official Newport draw confirmation and any injury updates posted by the ATP before the 22:05 UTC settlement window closes on 16 July. A delay beyond seven days or a cancellation would reset the market to 50-50, a clause that has triggered in 8% of Challenger matches on grass since 2023 due to weather or player withdrawals [6]. Recent ATP communications confirm no schedule changes for the Newport event, but any late withdrawal by Kozlov would shift odds sharply toward Fearnley [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.