Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Timofey Skatov in the opening round of the 2026 ATP Swiss Open Gstaad on the grass courts of Switzerland, with the match scheduled to begin at 12:00 UTC. The prediction market currently implies a 49% probability for Collignon to advance, presenting a near-even contest that diverges sharply from traditional sportsbook sentiment and analyst tips. While the crowd sees a coin flip, preview outlets like The Stats Zone favour Collignon heavily, suggesting a 2-0 victory and noting his superior quality for the surface [1].

Historical data on grass-court first-round matches between players of similar ranking often resolves with a 50-50 split only when weather delays or injury scares intervene, yet the current 49% line suggests the market is pricing in a specific volatility not reflected in the head-to-head record. Skatov and Collignon share a 2-2 record on grass, with their most recent encounter ending in a three-set thriller [4]. This parity in surface-specific history typically anchors odds closer to 50%, but the divergence from Fanatics Markets, which lists Skatov as an 86% favourite, indicates a significant cross-platform pricing inefficiency traders must scrutinise [10].

Key catalysts for this contract include the final court assignment confirmation and any pre-match fitness updates, as the match is set for Court 1 at Gstaad [2]. Traders should monitor live broadcast feeds for any delay beyond the 8:00 AM ET start time, which could trigger the market’s 50-50 settlement clause if the winner is not determined within seven days. The Robinhood game-spread market currently prices Collignon at -4.5 games with a 52¢ implied probability, reinforcing the slight edge analysts see in his favour despite the prediction market’s hesitation [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.