Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Match O/U 21.5 | 99% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Match O/U 23.5 | 98% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, bonn: matheus pucinelli de almeida vs federico agustin gomez stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida and Federico Agustin Gomez in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agust… on PolyGram
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