Which company has best AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the final check of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on 31 July 2026, which will determine the company owning the model with the highest arena rank. This market currently shows an 11% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd doubts the leading contender will retain its top spot by the settlement date.

Historical patterns from the 2026 leaderboard show rapid volatility, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 recently securing the #1 position across text, code, and search arenas simultaneously—a feat no OpenAI, Google, or xAI model has matched yet [2]. However, the composite quality index for June 2026 now lists Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at the top with a perfect 100/100 score, while Claude Opus 4.8 edges out GPT-5.5 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index [1]. This divergence between current rankings and the 11% market probability indicates traders may be pricing in a potential shift toward non-Anthropic models or a new release before July.

Traders should monitor upcoming model announcements from major labs, particularly any GPT-5.5 or Gemini 4.0 updates scheduled for late June or early July, as these could disrupt the current hierarchy. Recent benchmarks highlight Anthropic’s dominance in coding (SWE-bench Pro 69.2%) and computer-use agents (Online-Mind2Web 84%), but OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 remains a close contender in search and general reasoning [1]. The settlement depends entirely on the leaderboard table checked at 12:00 PM ET on 31 July, so any late-stage releases or re-rankings will be decisive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Which company has best AI model end of July? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.