Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to hamburg european open, qualification: arantxa rus vs chloe paquet. This market refers to the tennis match between Arantxa Rus and Chloe Paquet in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →