Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti | 31% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 4% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of rome: deborah chiesa vs lucia bronzetti. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Deborah Chiesa and Lucia Bronzetti in the Rome, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'De…
Methodology
This page reviews Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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