Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 93% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 7% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of targu mures: elena ruxandra bertea vs carole monnet. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Ruxandra Bertea and Carole Monnet in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
We track Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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