Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 91% |
| Map 2 Winner | 82% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 75% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 53% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-7.5) vs BBL Esports (+7.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-6.5) vs BBL Esports (+6.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-9.5) vs BBL Esports (+9.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-8.5) vs BBL Esports (+8.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 25% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: nongshim redforce vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant 3rd place decider match between Nongshim RedForce and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 7:00AM ET…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs BBL Esports (BO3) - E… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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