Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs XLG Gaming (+8.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs XLG Gaming (+9.5) | 53% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-11.5) vs XLG Gaming (+11.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 47% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-12.5) vs XLG Gaming (+12.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GM (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: gentle mates vs xlg gaming (bo3) - esports world cup group c stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and XLG Gaming in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports… on PolyGram
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