Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dumas in Round 1 | 56% |
| Decision or Draw | 56% |
| Dumas in Round 2 | 54% |
| Dumas in Round 3 | 54% |
| Gall in Round 1 | 53% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 52% |
| Gall in Round 2 | 52% |
| Gall in Round 3 | 52% |
| Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas | 51% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 51% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 51% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| Dumas to win by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% |
| Fight won by decision? | 49% |
| Gall to win by KO/TKO? | 46% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 56% YES probability for UFC Fight Night: Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas (Middleweight, Prelims). This market will resolve to "Mickey Gall" if Mickey Gall is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sedriques Dumas at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $117K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade UFC Fight Night: Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas (Mi… on PolyGram
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